For Mayor of Warsaw and presidential hopeful Rafał Trzaskowski, this was supposed to be an easy win. Under his belt are 20 years of political experience and a blessing by Prime Minister Donald Tusk to be the torch bearer for the new generation of the centrist Polish politics under the Civic Coalition (KO) umbrella.
On Sunday, 71,63% of the Polish public weighed in on the decision, a record for the second round of presidential elections. Out of those, 50,89% ultimately favoured nationalist Karol Nawrocki – the current head of the Institute of National Remembrance and an independent candidate backed by the Law and Justice (PiS) party. His credentials include never holding an elected office and a steady string of scandals – from allegations of elderly exploitation to football hooliganism, among others.
Crunching the numbers
According to the exit polls, a little over half of Polish women voted for Trzaskowski, while men favoured Nawrocki. The real division was not based on gender, however, but age, geography and education. Those who voted for Trzaskowski tended to have higher education, while Nawrocki was favoured by voters by those with elementary education and vocational training.
While Trzaskowski was the favourite in the 40 to 59 age group, Nawrocki swept the youngsters and the seniors. This is not surprising, as many young people voted for fringe candidates from the far-right spectrum in the first round of votes, which Nawrocki is ideologically closer to. Meanwhile, the 60+ senior cohort is loyal to the PiS party that supported his candidacy.
Geographically speaking, Trzaskowski won in 10 out of 16 Polish voivodeships. The country was roughly split according to the historic partition lines, with Nawrocki triumphing in the less-well-off, rural regions of Eastern Poland, which also tend to lean more conservative.
Could we see this coming?
Yes and no. In the first election round, support for the candidates remained close, with Trzaskowski having a small 1.82 percentage point margin over Nawrocki. The real surprise arrived in the form of two far-right candidates placing right after them – Confederation’s (KWiN) Stanisław Mentzen secured 14.81%, while The Crown’s (KKP) Grzegorz Braun won 6.3% of the vote.
While those two scored more than expected, it was not clear how this would translate in the second round. They are ideologically closer to Nawrocki than Trzaskowski, but support for the non-conventional candidates – a “protest vote” against the political status quo – could have very well meant that a significant chunk of electorate might have skipped the second round, not convinced by either mainstream candidate.
What now?
Karol Nawrocki will take over from Andrzej Duda as the president on 6 August. His veto power threatens the prospect of Tusk’s government coalition to be able to push through legislation. His alignment with the MAGA movement and a Eurosceptic tilt might be yet another reason for a clash with the pro-EU Prime Minister, complicating Poland’s stance on the green transition or joint debt in Brussels. Meanwhile, Trzaskowski has to go back to a reality where once again – after being defeated by Duda in 2020 – he loses to a PiS-backed candidate by a hair.
Julia Piwowarska, Media Relations Consultant