The Ex Files: Europe Rebounds from a Broken Transatlantic Romance
Trump’s tariffs have shocked the world. Most people are already tired of following the Don’s soap opera, with its continuous twists and extravagant turns, so instead, let’s tune in to the spinoff episode dedicated to one of the most important characters of this show: the good old European Union.
The saga resembles the turbulent life of a teenager who starts ignoring his long-time friends as soon as he enters a relationship and, once he gets his heart broken, rushes back to them acting like nothing happened. The EU has been busy contacting all the countries which had been long-forgotten. So who are these friends (read: future possible trade partners), and what is their relationship with the EU?
Unsurprisingly, the first friend the EU called after its North American heartbreak is the one it has known the longest: South America. An agreement with Mercosur countries has been negotiated for now twenty five years, and its ratification has been described as a priority by the European institutions on different occasions. The deal, if ratified, would create a market of nearly 800 million citizens. However, between the two players lay the governments of France, Poland and Ireland, which are under great pressure by their countries’ farming industries. Romania might soon join their club, with presidential front-runner George Simion declaring he will try to block the agreement if elected.
Next in line are some other key members of the circle of friends: Australia and India. While von der Leyen still hasn’t talked FTA with Australia after the election of Anthony Albanese, it is expected to happen shortly. The EU currently enjoys FTAs with nine countries in the Pacific – including Canada, Japan and Chile -, and a deal with Australia (and possibly New Zealand, who recently held a sympathetic phone call with Brussels) could increase European engagement in the region. What might make talks more difficult however, is – yet again – the European farming sector; which is not excited, to say the least, to welcome cheap beef from Down Under. On the other hand, the EU has tried to lurk India into FTAs talk since von der Leyen visit last February. The agreement would create a market of nearly two billion people, an unprecedented achievement in trade history. The EU is looking forward to better access to the Indian market, currently pushing to remove Indian tariffs on dairy, wine and car markets. Meanwhile, India would like to see what it perceives as “non-tariffs barriers” (like Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and Rules of Origins) thrown out of the deal. As we write, meetings are being held in New Delhi between EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič and India Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal.
However, the EU has managed to strike a highly interesting Trade Agreement in the last month. On 7 May 2025, the EU and Singapore signed a Digital Trade Agreement. The deal aims at making data sharing safer and easier, facilitating public sector access to data, and enhancing general data access and portability. While less encompassing than other trade agreements, this signals a new trend in EU trade policies, which will most likely see a surge in digital provisions in EU trade deals.
Finally, the EU is hoping to reunite with one of its oldest friends: the United Kingdom. Despite post-Brexit tensions, there is a chance the flame could be rekindled. Next week, EU leaders will head to London to discuss a new, encompassing agreement, with the United Kingdom. Described as a “reset” of relations, the meetings will undoubtedly be the most significant since Brexit.
Overall, while broken-hearted, the EU has rushed back to old friends, so far with mixed results. On the one hand, the intention to strike new FTAs with leaders worldwide; has rekindled the EU’s role as a trader in an increasingly multipolar world, has increased its global engagement, and is working on mending broken relationships. However, success stories have yet to materialise. The outcome of the Mercosur agreement, expected by the end of this year, will perhaps reveal whether this newfound global trade engagement by the EU will truly be successful.
Alessandro Pizzi, Public Affairs Consultant